Protecting the Future of Retail

& of Everything

The future is always a fascinating topic. And as a business strategist focused on growth, it’s also a job requirement to look ahead…

Right now though, the future of everything feels a bit uncertain. And the future of retail? That’s a huge question mark that depends on our actions today.

In the United States, the retail industry:

• Directly employs 30 million people, or roughly 10% of the total national population (or did, prior to COVID)
• Plays a significant role in personal consumption expenditure (which accounts for 2/3 of the country’s GDP)
• Defines the fabric of our communities and our daily interactions

So, in my opinion, if we want a future of anything — securing the future of retail is essential.

As shops, restaurants and other retail outlets were forced to shut down in the face of the first wave of coronavirus back in March, consumer spending dropped precipitously. Online incumbents, delivery services, and D2C players picked up some of the slack- and brick & mortars who were able to successfully pivot eventually captured share too. Yet large-scale bankruptcies, including fashion stalwarts J. Crew and Neiman Marcus, have made front page news, while national chains like Starbucks Coffee announced the closing of hundreds of store locations. All the while, independent retail businesses sheltered in place, waiting things out, hoping and praying to reopen sooner than later.

Now, just as businesses and consumers are getting a peek at what reopening could be, and stimulus spending provides a parallel uptick— major case surges are shuttering Main Street anew.

The biggest problem isn’t the shutdown though. It’s the system in which we operate and under which this crisis is taking shape.

Let’s for the moment ignore the utter lack of meaningful government support for small businesses which the New York Times yesterday speculated would lead to thousands of additional small business bankruptcies (and litigation) in the near-term.

Let’s forget major retail trends that even before the pandemic were accelerating online sales, extolling the value of “experience”, and causing crazy rent hikes across the country.

But let’s not brush aside the fact that in recent weeks, customers themselves have begun to pose one of the most immediate threats to retail big and small. On Tuesday, TriplePundit.com (link here) summarized the so-called “Karen” issue, forcefully describing those who summarily refuse to wear masks or respect social distancing despite scientific evidence, because it upsets their personal understanding of American “independence”.

So now- already chronically insecure, underpaid, and over-stressed retail workers are also being asked to put their physical and emotional wellbeing on the line in defense of state and/or store policies. Really? Fortunately, Walmart and Target today followed Costco and Best Buy in instating mandatory face covering rules for customers and employees alike. (Business Insider’s list of all retailers currently requiring masks can be found here.)

Looking through a lens of the future, notably the future of retail- NONE of this is enough. Not even close.

Given the current state of the world, there’s so much we need to do. Not only for the future of retail, but for our future of everything. Here are three basic ideas for what’s needed to build back better:

1) Government — We need a PLAN.

• Enough with the short-term tactics. Set real strategies for sector and community support and recovery.
• The country, its people, and its businesses need clear guidelines, timelines, and sufficient aid to survive and then thrive. If we’re struggling to fulfill basic needs like food and shelter, and uncertain what the near future holds on the most basic of levels — we can hardly be expected to innovate or rebuild better. The sad outcome of this shortsightedness will be the decline of American business and industrial leadership.
• Coordinate between local, state, regional, and federal (and with the private sector too). Please!? Some municipalities and states are ahead of others, but we are the United States; work together. There are many efficiencies to be found in collaboration and partnership.

2) Business — Workers need POLICIES & TRAINING.

• Companies need to help all workers better address stress and fear, especially those on the frontline right now. Pay a living wage, provide PPE (personal protective equipment), and consider adding benefits. Five million Americans have already lost health insurance in this pandemic, tens of millions more will be without if the Supreme Court fails to uphold the Affordable Care Act. Business — you can do better.
• Don’t assume that retail workers can handle growing customer aggression. They can’t and shouldn’t have to. Set policies that matter.
• And not to be forgotten, take meaningful steps forward to address systemic racism and inequality in your business and industry. These issues have been far too prevalent in far too many places for far too long, and it holds us back from progress.

3) People — Each and every one of us needs to show our HUMANITY.

• These are difficult and challenging times for all. We must dig deep and abide by the social contract, adhere to the basic tenants of civil society.
• More than ever — respect, reciprocity, and putting ‘we before me’ are essential.
• There can be no disputing that we will ALL come through this better if we challenge ourselves to all come through it TOGETHER.

I know these suggestions may feel overly simple, too common sense, even lofty — but the clock is ticking. If we’re to combat COVID, rebuild the economy, and save whatever’s left of the great American Dream — we need to start NOW. And that requires clear, simple, coordinated, common sense action across government, business, and individuals in community with the aim of benefiting all.

I truly believe we can build a better future from here- in retail and across our American economy- but will we? What do we want it to look like?

For today at least, let’s begin here and start building back better ASAP. The opportunity is ours to seize.